Development of a Point-based Prediction Model for the Incidence of Total Stroke

Background and Purpose—An individualized risk score for the development of stroke may be a useful tool to motivate patients to modify their risk behaviors. We developed and validated a point-based prediction model (risk score) for stroke incidence using a Japanese cohort of general men and women.

Methods—The Japan Public Health Center-based prospective study cohort II (age range, 40–69 years at baseline in 1993–1994; n=15 672) was used to derive the point-based model according to Cox regression results. The model was externally validated using the Japan Public Health Center study cohort I and also by bootstrap methods within cohort II. The model discrimination was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, model calibration, by the Grønnesby–Borgan χ² statistic. Vascular age was also calculated. Read more