Lack of Concordance between Empirical Scores and Physician Assessments of Stroke and Bleeding Risk in Atrial Fibrillation: Results from the Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT-AF) Registry

CIRCULATIONAHA.; March 29, 2014

Background—Physicians treating patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) must weigh the benefits of anticoagulation in preventing stroke versus the risk of bleeding. While empirical models have been developed to predict such risks, the degree to which these coincide with clinicians’ estimates is unclear.

Methods and Results—We examined 10,094 AF patients enrolled in the Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of AF (ORBIT-AF) registry between June, 2010 and August, 2011. Empirical stroke and bleeding risks were assessed using the CHADS₂ and ATRIA scores, respectively. Separately, physicians were asked to categorize their patients’ stroke and bleeding risks: low- (<3%); intermediate- (3-6%); and high-risk (>6%). Overall, 72% (n=7251) in ORBIT-AF had high-risk CHADS₂ scores (≥2). However, only 16% were assessed as high stroke risk by physicians. While 17% (n=1749) had high ATRIA bleeding risk (score ≥5), only 7% (n=719) were considered so by physicians. Read more